There has been much said about Group D going into this World Cup. That is natural. The United States are hosts and expected to progress, however, the perspective of most American pundits seems to be that the group represents only a minor obstacle. I’m certain Australia, Paraguay, and Turkey have their own opinions on the matter, but the truth is, Group D has a lot more to it than it seems.  

I should declare an interest here. I am Australian. I grew up watching the Socceroos, and still have our narrow loss to eventual champions Argentina at the 2022 World Cup burned into my brain. I still haven’t been able to forgive goalkeeper Emi Martinez for denying Garang Kuol a last-minute equalizer in that game. But enough about Australia, I’ll return to the Socceroos later. For now, let’s dive into the rest of Group D. 

Paraguay have not been at a World Cup since 2010. That last appearance ended in a quarter-final defeat by eventual champions Spain, their best tournament run nonetheless. 16 years is long enough for an entire generation of supporters to have grown up never hearing their country’s anthem at the tournament. They are back and they fought to get here.  

Their qualification story tells you most of what you need to know about this team. They got off to a horrible start, taking only one point in the first three games, and sat in eighth place at the halfway mark with just 10 points. What followed was a recovery built on stubbornness and collective belief. Along the way they beat Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. Teams that beat Argentina and Brazil in the same qualifying campaign do not do so by accident, and they arrive at the World Cup intending to make a statement. 

Under head coach Gustavo Alfaro, Paraguay are compact and dangerous. They will deploy the traditional, disciplined 4-4-2, defending in two banks of four, and breaking quickly through the wide players when they win the ball back. They will not come to Los Angeles on June 12th to entertain, they will come to win, and they have a recent history of making South American giants look ordinary.  

Who to watch:

To anyone who has not watched the cult classic movie ‘Goal!’, I can’t recommend enough. The recommendation doesn’t necessarily come because of its quality, but rather the likeness of the main character ‘Santiago Muñez’ to Paraguayan forward Miguel (Miggy) Almirón. The likeness only goes as far as his short haircut and the fact they both played for Newcastle United, but the Paraguayan’s electric quality while in the Premier League was enough to make him a cult hero in his own right.  

Miggy is currently in the twilight of his career, returning to his former team Atlanta United in 2025. This is almost certainly his last World Cup. Players with his proven quality don’t lose it.  

Diego Gómez of Brighton and formerly Inter Miami is a young talent the squad is built around in the long term. It was barely a year after signing with Inter Miami that he joined Brighton in a deal that is reportedly worth more than $17 million. He scored the goal that beat Brazil in qualifying at twenty-one years old. That is the kind of thing that follows a player to a tournament and gives belief hard to manufacture. 

Turkey’s last World Cup was 2002, when they finished third in one of the competition’s great underdog runs. This is only their fourth appearance at the tournament, and their first since South Korea and Japan. That period has come with whispers and glimpses of promise, most of which have fallen flat. Turkey being widely hailed as ‘dark horses’ across tournaments, their challenge for the Euro title in 2020 certainly comes to mind. This squad carries those stories and is finally getting to write its own. 

Manager Vincenzo Montella’s side finished just three points behind Spain in qualifying, then beat Romania and Kosovo in successive 1-0 play-off victories, proving they know how to win tight games and they know how to keep things together when the pressure builds. They will not be overawed by a group stage.  

Who to watch 

Arda Güler is twenty-one years old, plays for Real Madrid, and was named the Champions League Revelation of the Season after contributing two goals and four assists as Madrid reached the quarter-finals. He is the kind of player this tournament was made for and there is a realistic chance he ends it as one of its defining figures. 

Kenan Yıldız of Juventus is the second creative threat, and the fact that Turkey has both in the same squad at the same time is the kind of generational coincidence that should concern other teams. Additionally, captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu of Inter Milan, with 104 caps, provides the experienced engine around which the younger players can build.  

Finally, it would be remiss of me to not acknowledge the incredible season that Ferdi Kadıoğlu of Brighton has had, culminating in him winning the Brighton Player of the Season Award. Joining from Fenerbahçe in 2024 for almost $35 million, Ferdi has immediately proven his quality, and brings significant quality and pace to this Turkish defence.  

Despite being forced to qualify through the playoffs, Turkey are arguably the most dangerous team in this group that is not the United States. If Güler and Yıldız play the way they are capable of playing, Turkey will advance. The only question is whether a squad that has been away from this stage for twenty-four years can handle the occasion when it finally arrives.  

Before we jump in, I will address the elephant in the room.  Yes, Australia is winning the World Cup.  But even if you disagree with me, you might not disagree as aggressively as some notable U.S. pundits.  

Alexi Lalas ranked Australia 36th among the tournament’s 48 teams. He said they would struggle to score goals, struggle to maintain possession, and called them “an average team by any measure, and certainly not a great team.” Landon Donovan predicted they would finish bottom of Group D and called the Socceroos manager Tony Popovic “smug” for saying he was satisfied with the draw. Mike Grella at CBS called them a lay-up.

I want to suggest there’s a lot more to this team than some may think.  I have an obvious conflict of interest, I will acknowledge that, but consider the following. 

Australia reached the round of sixteen at Qatar 2022 and lost 2-1 to eventual champions Argentina. They were not outclassed. They were beaten by a single goal by the best team in the world. If they were half as excited by that game as I was, they’re now back with the memory of how close they were, and with a burning desire to put it right.  

Who to Watch:

Nestory Irankunda is twenty years old, plays for Watford, and is the most explosive attacking talent Australia has produced in years. Born in Tanzania to Burundian refugee parents and raised in Adelaide, he scored five goals in fourteen appearances in qualification and has the pace to make any backline uneasy.

For context, Alphonso Davies once held the Bundesliga top-speed record at 22.69 mph; Nestory has been recorded running at more than 23 mph in the A-League.  He is the kind of player Lalas probably has not watched enough of yet. He will watch him in Seattle on June 20th.  

Mat Ryan and Mathew Leckie are heading to their fourth World Cups each, equalling the national record. At 6.6’’, Harry Souttar of Leicester City cuts an imposing figure within the defence if he can retain fitness. There was an eleventh-hour inclusion of Christian Volpato into the Socceroo squad within the last two weeks.

The promising youngster had previously represented Italy at U21 levels, but has been coaxed into switching international allegiance  to Australia. Following his official debut in a friendly against Switzerland, Christian joins as a genuine option to bolster the Aussie attack. This is a well-structured, well-prepared, well-motivated squad with a specific goal and several months of deliberate preparation behind them.  

A wise man (Socceroos defender Alessandro Circati) once said, “I’m not too fazed by the big things, I’m not too fazed by the negative things either.” Neither am I Alessandro. Bring on Group D. 

The United States should progress. They may even win the group comfortably. However, Paraguay did not wait 16 years, or beat Argentina and Brazil, just to make up numbers. Turkey did not spend 24 years waiting for a return just to admire the scenery. Australia certainly have no interest in playing the role assigned to them by American television pundits. 

Group D is not a lay-up, but it might be the most entertaining group in the tournament.